Stephen Hansen

NFL draft rules randomly allocate players of similar quality to teams of different quality. But there is no effect of initial match on long-term performance, suggesting that firms do not contribute to long-term inequality in sufficiently competitive markets.

Plugging measures derived from AI/ML algorithms into regressions leads to biased estimation but does not distort confidence intervals. Valid inference can be performed with a bias correction or maximum likelihood estimation.

Inflation uncertainty leads to more hawkish policy stances on the Federal Open Market Committee. This appears to arise from concerns for tail risk than model parameter uncertainty.

Using novel daily measures of consumption, firm sales, and employment, we show that the economy reacts within days to monetary policy shocks. Time aggregation of the measures to quarterly frequency masks these short-run dynamics.

We use a large language model trained on tens of thousands of human labels to measure remote and hybrid work adoption with unprecedented granularity. We document large heterogeneity in adoption across narrow occupation categories, cities, and firms.

We use comprehensive financial transactions from one of Europe's largest banks to build a large-scale consumption survey using national accounting principles. We use this to build aggregate and distributional accounts for consumption, as well as a detailed individual consumption panel.

We measure the demand for executive skills aross firms using a unique, large-scale corpus of job specifications. The importance of social skills is growing over time and is related to firm size, firm scope, and the information intensity of worker skills.

We combine elements of supervised machine learning and dictionary methods to uncover narrow, interpretable risk exposures from 10-K filings that account for firm-level reactions to aggregate shocks. We apply this idea to study equity returns during the COVID-19 pandemic.